Gold began a parabolic decline in
October 2016 but bounced back late in the same year leading to a parabolic
rally for the Two Quarters of 2017 ending last week. One can safely say that
this rally has been a Powerful pullback that blew up major ceilings(38% and 50%
Fib levels ) and now Gold is at a critical point. why critical? if you plot the
Fibonacci tool the rally that begun in
early 2017, price is now resting at the 38% level. This cluster (of a
level that was previously a fib support now turned resistance
and the 38% support level) forms a very strong floor and to add more concrete
to it, currently the 200 day moving average acts as support too. That said, the
rally has really propped up the Aussie for the last 2 quarters This Technical
uptrend has also been supported by good data coming out of Australia (Latest
GDP data -Dec Qtr 2016 to Mar Qtr 2017 up to 0.3% from a previous 0.2%),
precipitated a booming mining sector and China. But despite the impeccable performance
of the Aussie and the Australian Economy in general the RBA has seen no need to hike interest
Rates since inflation is well within its targeted levels (2.5%-3.5%). The
market also does not expect it to do so tomorrow. But we'll find out.
Despite the interest rate hikes
by the FED that have tried to at least prop up the US10yr bond yield but not
yet trading above the 200day MA, the Dollar has been depreciating. Seems to me
that few investors have appetite for the bond yields and preferring to invest
in US Equities which have been performing quite well as per the S&P 500.
Adding onto this, the recent hawkish comments by key ECB Officials doesn't make
things better for the dollar because investors will further be attracted to the
high yielding European Bonds.
*Kindly read the rules at the end of this post before proceeding
GLD- I'll be looking to go long after
a confirmed break of resistance at
1260.00 on a 4hr setup , above both the 200MA and 100MA. In my rule
book, I look for trends that are above these MA's on the the long term chart and the Short term Timeframes as a confirmation of the trend and also as a way of finding a reasonable
price to place my stop loss. Preferably below one MA or both.
4hrAUDUSD- the parabolic rally
seems to be pulling back as we head toward s NY open. I will watching key
support levels in anticipation of tomorrow’s economic releases and after the
releases in order to find good risk reward levels. watch for breakouts after
the releases and the support levels. bad data might further drive the pair down
but if support at 0.7602 if broken and the break confirmed my short-term bias
will change.
4hr EURUSD the pair is currently
pulling back. Also, be on the lookout for those support levels and resistance
level breakouts after the barrage of US Data is released. A confirmed breakdown
below 1.1200 invalidates my short-term bias.
4hr USDX(Dollar Index). will
upcoming Data give us pullbacks or will they change the short-term trend. I
will be keeping an eye on the resistance levels, confirmed Breakouts above the
200ma will invalidate my short-term bias.
4hrGBPUSD the pound is pulling
back after the parabolic rallies last week. The BOE governor has a lot of
speaking engagements this week. The pair might react because this since traders
are anticipating on how hawkish he'll be regarding a rate hike given that UK's
inflation data has so far made a case for a hike. Good data from the US might precipitate nice pullbacks. For
now, looks like the bullish pennant has failed and we might see a further pullback .
4hrGBPJPY- expecting a good pull
back here for a long setup. breakout below 144.36 will change my bias.
1hrGBPCHF- This pair has a good
risk reward setup as I write this. A confirmed break of 1.2477 should justify a long.
P.s
Kindly take notice of this Blog's Disclaimer.
-Thick horizontal Lines represent weekly Resisitance,Extra thick-Monthly and Thin, the Daily
- Anticipated Trades are in the direction of the short-term and long-term Trend
- Trades are taken In accordance with the order of the two moving averages.If price falls between the two Moving Averages setups become invalid
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