Wednesday 7 December 2016

WINNING IDEAS FOR 2017



WINNING IDEAS FOR 2017

DOING MORE OF WHAT WORKS AND LESS OF WHAT DOESN'T WORK

AUDIT YOUR PERFORMANCE

In your trading, make an annual ritual of conducting an audit of the trades made during the past year, focusing on the winners as well as the losers. If you not trading, substitute ' trading' for whatever you are doing.

From the audit of the winners, try to identify what you did right: what was working for you during this year ie 'Your success profile.' These become the basis for “trading solutions” that you consciously attempt to implement in the coming 2017.

The idea is to create your own model of trading success, but also to build the model from your own experience rather than borrow it from a trading guru.


Before each trading day, rehearse elements of this model in your trading diary. This consistent rehearsal helps you to internalize the trading solutions so that they become an automatic part of the trading arsenal. 

 The 'doing of more that works and less that doesn't work' method appears to work for much the same reason that evolution works. When there are random mutations within a gene pool, some of these prove highly adaptive and improve a species’ survival rate. Over time, this selective pressure increases the representation of the mutation within the gene pool, until it becomes dominant. 

Similarly, we can view our trades as a set of mutations within the total pool of our trading behaviors. By emphasizing the successful trades and paying particular attention to these—constructing them as solutions—we exercise our own selective pressure and increase the representation of those behaviors in our repertoires.


Conversely, when we are problem focused—paying more attention to our deficient behaviors than our successful ones—we unwittingly reinforce these and create a kind of devolution. 

Auditing worst trades can also be useful, especially in eliminating those few trades that often create a large share of one’s annual losses. 

The doing of more that works and less of what doesn't work approach, is unique in its ability to help you become your own coach. By requiring you to find your own successes and create models built on these. Empowering you to become your own trading guru rather than fostering an unhealthy depedance on others.

Sunday 4 December 2016



GOLD 4-HOUR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is back into the indecision zone after failing to break the 1400 resistance zone on the monthly chart and still showing a bearish bias. The price is now in large monthly support which may give some bounces on the daily and lower time frames.

The 4-hour timeframe is already showing some exhaustion in the sellers with 3 complete waves (1,2,3) of selling as it hits into the large monthly support marked M around 1159.87. The major con in this exhaustion is the weakness in the corrective moves (highlighted gray ellipses). The momentum in the buyers in the corrective moves is very weak compared to the sell offs (waves labeled 1,2,3) which shows a less conviction in the buyers.

But a close above pink trendline R may lead price back into resistance zone around 1211.22 marked T. Close below M disqualifies the setup


Sunday 27 November 2016



AUDCAD,
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

The price is now in a congestion marked by K and G horizontal line (highlighted zone). You can clearly see the 2 waves up and down, a typical characteristic of a congestion. 

Price is now at the top end of the congestion zone at K and has already completed the 2 waves in the congestion making the K resistance zone a strong halt zone. The next likely movement is another two wave until we will see either the bulls or bears succumb.

The period between green and pink arrows indicate averagely how long the price takes to reach the end of the congestion which is averagely 28 months. 



WEEKLY CHART

The weekly chart shows more inside action. The highlighted K-G zone is the same as the one above on the monthly chart. The 2 waves in the congestion can be seen here prominently.

You can see the strong reactions off the ends of the congestion zone like the strong pin bar, that triggered that strong sell of.


Thursday 24 November 2016



USDCAD Hourly 
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Price is now reacting to a small trendline support and 21 Simple Moving Average. Close below B can lead price into support one C around 1.34485. Close above A disqualifies the setup






Wednesday 23 November 2016


ADVANCED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

AUDJPY, MONTHLY 
PURE PRICE  ACTION ANALYSIS

In-depth price pattern action analysis includes majorly the following as we had discussed in the prevvious article
  • Analysis of the major swing moves and how long they have been lasting
  • Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
  • The current probable status
  • General conclusion on the pair 




Analysis of major swing moves.
The major swing moves are indicated by the green arrows have been averagely lasting for about 13 months and moving over 2400 pips. As i had mentioned in the previous article, understanding of the price action of these major swings enables you not to get out of the trades too early or too late. It also enables you not to make entries into an ended/exhausted swing since you now know how long they averagely last

Analysis of corrective moves 
The corrective moves have been lasting averagely 2 years, atleast twice the period of major swings. I have marked the corrective moves with gray ellipses. Observing how long these congestion zones helps not to enter the major swing trades too early or too late and the timeframes to trade on during different market phases

 Probable status.
The price is now in the congestion phase. The congestion limits are marked by horizontal lines A and C with B being the major pivotal zone. Close above A or below C will confirm the next major swing in the respective directions only when the congestion period has lasted on average as the previous congestions.

General conclusion
Understanding pure price action helps you to know what phase the price is in apparently. Congestion on the larger times like this monthly chart give great swings on the weekly and daily charts with trading mainly limited within the pink rectangle. Just like how those up and down swings on that monthly chart indicate congestion on the yearly time frame




Tuesday 22 November 2016



GBPJPY, 30MINUTES
DAY TRADE SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now reacting to small trendline support T. Close below T can lead price into support zone around 136.956 marked A. Strong close below A can lead price into B. Close above R disqualifies the setup.



Monday 21 November 2016



EURAUD,MONTHLY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The monthly chart has a cup and handle formation. Continuation to the upside will be confirmed by a close above R. The price momentum up L should preferably be strong just as the previous swing K for price to reach the 1.81747 resistance zone marked T.  If the L swing is weak, the R resistance zone is likely to hold the price. Close below S disqualifies the setup.



Sunday 20 November 2016



AUDJPY, H4
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Price is now reacting to support zone around 81.085 marked X. Close below X can lead price into Y support zone around 80.484. Close above P disqualifies the setup






AUDCHF
WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is congesting in a triangle marked by the blue trendlines A and B. It is now reacting to the 21 Simple Moving support, the green trendline is next support. Close below the green trendline will price into the bottom of the congestion at B blue trendline. Close below B can lead to the retest of lows into support zone around 0.63893 marked S.
Close above R disqualifies the setup.

Monday 14 November 2016


ANALYSIS RESULTS AND FOLLOW UP (WHAT HAPPENED)

This follows up the January and March articles

Trading requires alot of patience and discipline.

EURGBP MONTHLY

The pair reacted perfectly just as we had analysed in the previous article . The major swing is complete and now price is reacting to the major previous congestion resistance zone.
                                 Before                                                                                
 

After
AUDJPY, HOURLY

The pair performed much better than we had discussed in the previous article but USDJPY hourly did not confirm our entry

Before

After


GBPNZD,DAILY
The pair had quite a movement from our discussion. From T it retest the trendline S which corresponded with X resiatance zone which gave off a strong sell off into Y. Close below Y was confirmation of the bearish sentiment

Before

After


GOLD, H4
The price reacted perfectly as  as we had discussed with a clear buy entry

Before

After


EURGBP,H4
The movements in price where very clear even for the newbies to pick the short entries as we had analysed

Before

After


AUDJPY,H4

The A resistance zone held perfectly as we had discussed previously
 Before

After

GBPUSD,H4

The strong bearish candle closed below A and Y confirmed the short entry
Before

After

If you would love more charts or analysis of any currency pair. Please leave a comment 


Sunday 13 November 2016



NZDUSD, DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is coming into trendline support zone A which is the same support zone as previous congestion. Reaction strength off this zone will determine which the next market direction is highly likely. The chart below shows probability for downside especially if the high formed off reaction on the support trendline zone doesnt go higher than the high marked by the black arrow. Close above R disqualifies the setup.

Sunday 30 October 2016


AUDUSD, WEEKLY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The momentum/speed on the upswing marked 2 is much weaker compared to the previous upswing momentum marked 1. This gives the pair a bearish bias. Close below blue trendline marked B can lead price into the previous major support zone around 0.71068 marked S. Close above R disqualifies the setup.





Thursday 27 October 2016



NZDUSD, WEEKLY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pair gave off a quick sell for more than a month after a strong reaction from the R resistance zone showed by rejection of prices indicated by the pin bar.

The price is now reacting to previous support zone held by trendline X. Close below X can lead price into support zone around 0.68975 marked T. Close below T may lead price into the S zone around 0.66220. Close above R disqualifies the setup.



Sunday 23 October 2016


XAUUSD, H4
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is now reacting to a previous support zone also marked by a 21 Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. Close below trendline T can lead price into support zone marked S around 1250.472. Close above resistance R around 1274.655 disqualifies the setup.



Thursday 22 September 2016


EURGBP,H4
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pair is now reacting to a small pink trendline support marked X and a 21 Simple moving average support. Close below X can lead price into immediate support zone marked P around 0.85593. Close below P may lead price into around  0.85218 support zone marked S. Close above R disqualifies the setup.


Wednesday 21 September 2016


NZDCHF DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 The pair has continuously reacted off the resistance zone around 0.72235 marked R. It is now reacting to a 21 Simple Moving Average support. Close below the pink trendline marked X can lead price into support zone around 0.70027 marked A which is the same zone as the pink trendline T. Close below T may lead price into the larger support zone marked P around 0.66987


Sunday 11 September 2016


NZDCAD,H4
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


The price is now reacting to a 21 Simple Moving Average support. A close below the blue trendline T can lead price into support zone around 0.94880 marked S. 




Monday 29 August 2016


EURUSD, WEEKLY 
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now reacting to the red 21 Simple Moving Average support zone. A close below the moving average can lead price into the purple trendline support marked T. Close below T can lead price into support zone around 1.05480 marked S. Close below S can lead to resumption of the larger down trend. Close above R disqualifies the setup

Sunday 28 August 2016


AUDUSD, DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now being held by a blue support trendline marked T. Close below T can lead price into support zone around 0.73138 marked P and close below P can lead price into support zone around 0.71356 marked S. Close above R disqualifies the setup.

Friday 12 August 2016



NZDCHF,DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is reacting to a daily 21 Simple Moving Average support and supported by the blue trendline T. Close below T can lead price into support zone marked A around 0.68879. Close below A can lead price into support zone around 0.66986 marked P. Close above R disqualifies the setup

Thursday 11 August 2016


SELF DISCOVERY


It was and it will always be. The world was consisted of predators and prey. You were either hunting or running. Victims and victors, poor and rich, law makers and law abiding citizens, kings and servants, winners and losers. Everything with its opposite.  


Luckily enough, we are not born gazelles that our fate is sealed. We are special, we have the power choice. Fortunately or unfortunately, the choices are just two, you either choose to be a predator or a prey. But we all know where the highest numbers are, always, just simply because by default if you don't choose you have to be in the largest numbers.


Sunday 7 August 2016



AUDUSD,HOURLY
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is reacting to previous zone of congestion(support). Close below trendline T will immediately land price into P support zone around 0.75855. Close below P may lead price into support zone around 0.75391 marked L. Close above K resistance zone disqualifies the setup.




Friday 5 August 2016


ADVANCED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDCHF MONTHLY CHART 

Advanced technical analysis involves the following:

  • Signs of exhaustion on the major trend
  • Analysis of the major swings on the pair and how long they have been lasting
  • Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
  • General conclusion and current probable status



Signs of exhaustion on the major trend
The pair is showing signs of bearish exhaustion but no signs of major bullish movement just yet. So a position trader would have to sit around for some time but the pair still gives some good swing and day trades. For those of you familiar with the Elliot wave theory, Since break of the uptrend around 2002 when a major support green trendline marked Y was broken, the pair has completed the Elliot cycle(NB. My wave label is not as per Elliot theory) and has had 3 clear major swings with the 4th failing labelled 1234. The strong hammer at end of 3rd wave also showed strong rejection of low prices. And if you look clearly the trend is rounding. All these are signs of exhaustion in the major down ward trend.

Analysis of major swings
The major swings have been averagely lasting for a year and moving averagely over 2857.8pips. The momentum or speed on the major swings 1,2 and 3 was very strong that it gave chance to another 4th swing which failed. You can clearly see the speed of movement of price very slow in wave 4 as compared to other waves after the corrective move where sell entries with red arrows are indicated. This indicated a more weakness in the sellers. But still the bullish movement is not yet confirmed strong. Analysis of major swings helps you not to get out of trend too early or too late.

Analysis of corrective moves
The correctives on the above picture are highlighted by the gray ellipses. The corrective moves have been lasting averagely 2.5 years.  All the corrective have majorly been clearly two waves. Observing all this helps you not to enter the new trend too early or too late. And you can clearly see how entries were consistently on break of trendline of the 2nd wave within the corrective move

General conclusion and current probable status
The downtrend is exhausted but there are no clear signs of a major bullish movement just yet.
The momentum on the last up ward swing marked yellow is weak as compared to the previous upward swings marked yellow, therefore this makes red trendline resistance marked R a strong zone to hold the price.
Now price is held in a triangle between trendlines R and T. Close below T may lead price to retest the support trendline marked S and break and close above R can lead to a major movement to resistance zone around 1.13480 marked M.
If it reaches end of triangle before break of any the trendlines, it still remains a risky setup.

Sunday 31 July 2016


EURCAD,HOURLY
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pair is now reacting to a small trendline support marked T. Close below T can lead price into immediate support around 1.45267 marked Y. Close below Y can lead price into support zone marked X around 1.44582 . Close above resistance marked R around 1.46677 disqualifies the setup.





Thursday 28 July 2016


AUDCAD,H4
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Price is now reacting to the blue trendline support marked T. Close below T can lead price into support zone around 0.97497 marked A, and close below A can lead price into support zone around 0.96642 marked B. Close above resistance R disqualifies the setup.

Sunday 17 July 2016



EURUSD, DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now held in a channel formed by trendlines A and B. Close below B can lead price into support zone around 1.08740 marked X. Close below X can lead price into support zone around 1.06612 marked Y. Close above A disqualifies the setup.



Saturday 16 July 2016


NZDUSD, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pairs price is currently approaching the green trend-line support zone marked L. Close below L can lead price to go up to the  support zone around 0.68766 marked M.  Close below this support zone M can lead price into support zone marked N around 0.66020.




USDCAD,WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pair is currently reacting to the green trendline support marked T. Close below T can lead price to go up to the  support zone around 1.23209 marked K.  Close below this support zone K can lead price into support zone marked G around 1.14586.

Tuesday 12 July 2016



USDCAD,H1
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The pair is reacting to a small green trendline support marked A. Close below A can lead price into support zone around 1.30656 marked T.  Close below T can lead price into support zone marked S around 1.30251


Sunday 10 July 2016



GBPCAD, Hourly
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price on the hourly chart is now reacting to a 21 Simple Moving Average support. A close below the green trendline marked K can land price into support zone around 1.68340 marked H. Close below H can lead price into support zone marked M around 1.67621

Monday 4 July 2016



SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
NZDCHF, H1

The price is now reacting to a small trendline support, marked X. A close below the trendline can land price to support zone around 0.69630 marked Y and close below that zone can lead to retest of 0.69278 support zone marked Z.




NZDUSD, HOURLY
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now being held by a 21 Simple Moving Average support zone. A close below green trendline marked X can lead price into support zone around 0.71338 marked by horizontal line A. Close below A can land price into 0.71067 support zone marked B and close below B can lead price into larger support zone around 0.70634 marked C. Close above Y disqualifies the setup.




Monday 13 June 2016




NZDCAD,H4

SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now reacting to the 21 Simple Moving Average support after strong reaction off a resistance zone marked by the green trendline. A close below blue trendline marked E can lead price into 0.89393 support zone marked by the red horizontal line K. A close above the green trendline resistance disqualifies the setup