EURUSD, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MAJOR DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ZONES

The Fiber price has been moving in a bearish channel for the past 2.5 months after hitting a major monthly resistance R around 1.20900. The channel is marked by the red trendlines.

Last week, We had a large bullish break out out of the channel resistance. Large candle breakouts are usually indicate exhaustion  and that's why a retest of the trendline happening now was highly possible before any continuation to the upside. 

Currently, price is back to trendline support zone. Daily candle close below trendline may lead price back into t support zone which also happens to be the 21 Simple Moving Average zone. 

If we get a great price action bullish pattern on the trendline zone , the first immediate resistance will be r before we can any further upside movement.

Daily candle close above r may give price momentum back to the major monthly resistance R. Candle close below t may lead price back into major support zone S. For now, keeping trading on the lower timeframes within r and t zone.

Comments below; What do you think of these zones (r,t,R and S)?

USDJPY-Long term. A multi-year H&S and a Symmetrical Triangle at the Right Shoulder. Keeping an eye on those critical Resistance zones  

SILVER (Ag)

 WEEKLY PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

In one of previous articles, we discussed why the crypto boom is likely to bring back investors to the centuries safe havens i;e Silver and Gold. We also talked about why silver is likely to be a better investment than Gold. If you missed the article, you can get it here

So now lets look more into the price action on the silver weekly chart.

WEEKLY CHART

Price on the weekly chart is into congestion triangle showed by red trendlines A and B. The large monthly chart is into a large support which explains the large congestions on the weekly chart.

Silver price is coming towards end of triangle without breakout, so may see immediate levels of support X around 15.600 and resistance Y around 19.000 , hold before momentum can build to hit the ultimate levels S and R respectively.

For now keep the trading within the triangle congestion.

Weekly candle close above A may lead price into Immediate resistance Y and depending on the reaction on the Y zone we may see price push to large resistance marked  R around the 20.000 zone.

Weekly candle close below B may lead price into immediate support X and depending on the X zone reaction, price could retest lows at 14.600 zone  marked S

The large monthly chart already shows some bullish bias, so preferably price has to stay above support trendline B to maintain the bullish bias. If the upward bias is maintained and we get prices hitting resistance R, a monthly candle close above the zone R may give a long term monthly swing on the upside.

We still in congestion now, so we will wait for price action on the major marked support and resistance levels.

GOLD, PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

The price is back into congestion zone after a false break out at close of weekly candle(blue marking) on 1st Sept. Currently what we see is price into support zone but no major reaction for bounce up. Price is into the 21 Simple moving Average (SMA) zone, great horizontal support around 1266 zone marked with a blue line

The momentum on the downside is still quite strong, so it can make some lower lows aiming for the previous red trendline support marked T

If in short trade, you could take out some of your profits as we wait for reaction in this large support zone (21 SMA, horizontal and trendline support).

SO WHATS NEXT?

Depending on the price reaction on the current support zone, there are two major zones that could determine larger movement up or down. These levels are support trendline T and horizontal resistance zone marked with red line R.

Close below T could lead price to retest previous lows of the congestion around 1212.885 support zone marked S. Preferably if there is a small congestion on the current support zone to give momentum for price to fall through to S. But if current price just falls through beyond T with no pause, it will have a hard time falling into S, we may see immediate support zones in this case hold.

Close above resistance R ,could give  a true breakout that could push prices up. Previous highs would of course be the immediate resistance zone around 1345 marked Z

WHAT NEXT FOR GBPUSD AFTER OUR TARGET

In our previous article, we discussed the sell entries and targets. We have seen a swift follow through as price hit our our ultimate target.  Congratulations to those who followed up the setup.

So now lets discuss the current price action on the daily and 4 hour time frame.

DAILY CHART

Comparing the current swing with previous major average swings on the daily chart above, before price would have a corrective move, the daily major swing is almost completed. 

The downside momentum is still strong so despite the major swing being almost completed, we have no sign of any reversal. If you put a 21 SMA on your weekly chart,  you will notice that  the weekly price is in the SMA zone support which is also likely to halt the price. 

The daily price is sliding along trendline T and also into major support zone but since the momentum on the downside is still quite strong so we may see price go for lower lows. 

1.27610 support zone marked V is likely to be the immediate target if price closes below T. Price may fall to 1.26365 support zone marked Y if the momentum stays as strong before we see a significant correction .

4-HOUR

The 4 hour chart like we discussed in our previous article, we use it for entries.

The price is also sliding along trendline support T as shown in the above chart.  Close below the small H4  Pink trendline support, may run into support zone marked V as we discussed above.

GOLD (XAUUSD) INTRADAY ANALYSIS

4-HOUR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold has run into a channel as it hits the large daily resistance. The channel can be clearly viewed on the 4-hour chart below.  In our previous analysis, we discussed the V pattern movement on gold. if you didnt follow it up, you can check it here. V patterns are common congestion price movements especially as price lands into major support/resistance zones

Price in the channel is moving in clear V patterns so the most likely neXt move is a more push to the downside to test the lower level channel trendline B. The price on the 4-hour chart is now mid channel being held by the 21 Simple moving Average support.  Candle close below SMA may land into that small blue trendline support marked T. Close below T may give us the ultimate push through to retest B trendline support.

If price breaks the channel on the downside, and we may be just a retest of the lower channel without price beating the the highlighted high, which is mostly likely to be on the daily 21 SMA. aIf that happens, we may have a larger daily correction.

 But for now, lets keep it within the channel as we await the price action

BANKS SHOULD REALLY BE SCARED: ITS ADAPT OR DIE

I tend to think large bodies just like highly learned folks forget the basics. And the basic truth is that the power is with the people. What people have accepted and what works with ease is the deal. 

The future of fiat money has always been at stake but this time the danger is largely pronounced. We have seen technology disrupt many sectors. 

I could ask you a simple question: When did you last write a post letter? or when did you last receive one? I could guess its a long time ago unable to remember. Facebook and whatsapp are just at your fingertips. You no more need to stain your favourite shirt with ink or deal with unbearable post men. 

So.Whether you like it or not, Crypto-technology is here and people are embracing it. And it is the future of money. Alot of hedging has already done in the cryptos. This simply means the traditional banking systems need to be creative and adapt. 

Ofcourse, this also means we will see more cryptocurrencies coming up. Forexample, Recently Dubai was talking about lauching their own cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will have more strong competitors. There may be no coin that may beat the bitcoin price, but we will have coins with stronger intrinsic value. Its quite hard to tell which coin will be strongest in a decade to come. 

But all in all cryptotechnology is the future of the money. 

SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN WE HAVE A CRYPTO SATURATION 

You could guess that, More Investors will run back to precious metals (gold and Silver) to hedge their money. And this is going to happen sooner. 

Personally i would pick more silver than gold. SIlver is more consumed in industries so chances of reduction in reserves greater than Gold and therefore probability of doubling in value are much higher. 

Let me share the gold silver charts below. Will try to explain in a lay mans language, nothing very technical. 

The arrows on the chart show highest high and the lowest since 2011 and 2015 respectively. Both had all time highs in 2011. Gold's alltime highest is $1920.80 per ounce in Sept 2011 and Silver's highest was $49.81 per ounce in April 2011. As i write this now, Silver is at $16.65 an ounce which is around $545 a kilo and Gold is at $1270.10 an ounce.

When investors get more fearful in the cryptos and in major economies, the precious metals will become a preferance. If both Gold and Silver go back to all time highs, investors in Silver will have made more money than Gold hoarders because the price will have doubled more than thrice ( ie $16.65 to $49.81). A simple reason to pick more silver now. 

In conclusion, as time moves on, cryptocurrencies will be the new money worldwide with gold and silver being the hedge to all risks.