AUDUSD,H4SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now into a large weekly resistance zone marked by trendline X and the highlighted previous congestion as shown below although there is no significant reversal signal just yet, although there are signs of indecision displayed by the dojis as it reacts into the zone.

The 4-hour chart below shows indepth movement reactions to the zone. The price now is reacting to support zone marked by red trendline T. Close below T can lead price into trendline support zone marked C. Close below C can lead price into a larger support zone marked S.

Preferably for the setup to work as analysed above, price should not go beyond resistance zone marked R. Although there is still a possibility of price going higher since the larger weekly timeframe has not shown any significant reversal movements.

USDCHF, WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Monthly chart analysis can be found in this previous article.

The price is back into strong pivotal zone, a resistance zone that was broken in early November 2016. This zone is now a great support price zone.

Previous movements as highlighted show a strong retest of the zone that later confirmed the upside movement with a large bullish candle.

Currently the price is already into the support zone but there is no confirmation of the upside just yet to take back price into resistance marked R. The price can even go deeper just like in the previous retest.

But we can see already reaction to the support zone forexample, the gap open directly into the zone although there is no confirmation of the bounce up yet.

With the upcoming major fundamentals on the USD, Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) and Fed Interest rate decision may take price deeper down into the support zone or give a strong bounce up off the support zone.

NZDUSD,H4

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now is reacting to a daily resistance zone. The price on 4- hourly time frame is now being held by 21 Simple Moving Average and red trendline support. Close below the red trendline marked T may lead price into 0.71866 support zone marked S. Close above R disqualifies the setup.

EURUSD MONTHLY CHART PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

ADVANCED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD, MONTHLY

PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

The price is now at major support on monthly and weekly time frame as we had discussed in the previous article. This gives sharp bounces on the lower time times i.e daily and 4 hour. 

Now lets get into the depth of the price action on the monthly chart and this includes;

• Analysis of the major swing moves and how long they have been lasting
• Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
• The current probable status
• General conclusion on the pair 

Analysis of the major swing moves and how long they have been lasting

The major swing moves are indicated by the green arrows have been averagely lasting for about a year and moving over 3000 pips. As i had mentioned in the previous article, understanding of the price action of these major swings enables you not to get out of the trades too early or too late. It also enables you not to make entries into an ended/exhausted swing since you now know how long they averagely last

Analysis of corrective moves 

The corrective moves have been lasting averagely 2 years, atleast twice the period of major swings. I have marked the corrective moves with ellipses. Observing how long these congestion zones last helps you not to enter the major swing trades too early or too late and the timeframes to trade on during different market phases

The current probable status

The price is now reacting to a strong monthly support marked S around 1.04674. This is the same zone that halted the major down ward momentum in the beginning of 2015 (pink arrow), and also held price in the beginning of 2016 (blue arrow) and is now holding price in the beginning of 2017 (black arrow). This makes this zone a large decisive zone for the next 12 months price movement.

The general trend is down and there is a remarkable bearish strength as price hit the zone this time around closing with a doji as compared to the engulfing pattern in 2015 and piercing pattern in 2016 <see the arrows>

The congestion period seems to be done as it has lasted averagely as the previous congestions so we are waiting for the reaction off this major S support zone, if it will give off a strong bouce up or continuation of down trend. Confirmation of continuation of the down trend will be marked by a close below the S zone. This may land price into the 0.91416 zone

General conclusion

Understanding pure price action helps you to know what phase the price is in apparently. Congestion on the larger times like this monthly chart give great swings on the weekly and daily charts just like how we have been trading this pair since 2015. Price is now at a major decisive zone for the next yearly action.

WINNING IDEAS FOR 2017

WINNING IDEAS FOR 2017

DOING MORE OF WHAT WORKS AND LESS OF WHAT DOESN'T WORK

AUDIT YOUR PERFORMANCE

In your trading, make an annual ritual of conducting an audit of the trades made during the past year, focusing on the winners as well as the losers. If you not trading, substitute ' trading' for whatever you are doing.

From the audit of the winners, try to identify what you did right: what was working for you during this year ie 'Your success profile.' These become the basis for “trading solutions” that you consciously attempt to implement in the coming 2017.

The idea is to create your own model of trading success, but also to build the model from your own experience rather than borrow it from a trading guru.

Before each trading day, rehearse elements of this model in your trading diary. This consistent rehearsal helps you to internalize the trading solutions so that they become an automatic part of the trading arsenal. 

 The 'doing of more that works and less that doesn't work' method appears to work for much the same reason that evolution works. When there are random mutations within a gene pool, some of these prove highly adaptive and improve a species’ survival rate. Over time, this selective pressure increases the representation of the mutation within the gene pool, until it becomes dominant. 

Similarly, we can view our trades as a set of mutations within the total pool of our trading behaviors. By emphasizing the successful trades and paying particular attention to these—constructing them as solutions—we exercise our own selective pressure and increase the representation of those behaviors in our repertoires.

Conversely, when we are problem focused—paying more attention to our deficient behaviors than our successful ones—we unwittingly reinforce these and create a kind of devolution. 

Auditing worst trades can also be useful, especially in eliminating those few trades that often create a large share of one’s annual losses. 

The doing of more that works and less of what doesn't work approach, is unique in its ability to help you become your own coach. By requiring you to find your own successes and create models built on these. Empowering you to become your own trading guru rather than fostering an unhealthy depedance on others.

GOLD 4-HOUR

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is back into the indecision zone after failing to break the 1400 resistance zone on the monthly chart and still showing a bearish bias. The price is now in large monthly support which may give some bounces on the daily and lower time frames.

The 4-hour timeframe is already showing some exhaustion in the sellers with 3 complete waves (1,2,3) of selling as it hits into the large monthly support marked M around 1159.87. The major con in this exhaustion is the weakness in the corrective moves (highlighted gray ellipses). The momentum in the buyers in the corrective moves is very weak compared to the sell offs (waves labeled 1,2,3) which shows a less conviction in the buyers.

But a close above pink trendline R may lead price back into resistance zone around 1211.22 marked T. Close below M disqualifies the setup

AUDCAD,

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

The price is now in a congestion marked by K and G horizontal line (highlighted zone). You can clearly see the 2 waves up and down, a typical characteristic of a congestion. 

Price is now at the top end of the congestion zone at K and has already completed the 2 waves in the congestion making the K resistance zone a strong halt zone. The next likely movement is another two wave until we will see either the bulls or bears succumb.

The period between green and pink arrows indicate averagely how long the price takes to reach the end of the congestion which is averagely 28 months. 

WEEKLY CHART

The weekly chart shows more inside action. The highlighted K-G zone is the same as the one above on the monthly chart. The 2 waves in the congestion can be seen here prominently.

You can see the strong reactions off the ends of the congestion zone like the strong pin bar, that triggered that strong sell of.