Tuesday, 20 June 2017


AUDUSD,H4
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is running with strong downward momentum after reaction off a large resistance R. There is a probability for it to get to trendline support T to complete the swing. 

Close below T may lead price into daily a support zone around 0.75194 marked A. Daily candle close below A may lead price to fall to lower support zone around  0.74742 marked B. 

Close above R disqualifies the setup.



Sunday, 18 June 2017


GOLD DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold has been giving nice swing trades since the start of the Feb 2017 as it ran into a channel. The price is now being held in a channel marked with blue trendlines A and B.

The momentum in channel is comparable in both up and down swings forming clear cut V patterns. This means that there is a high probability that price will fall back and retest the lower part of the channel support B since it has comparable momentum after reaction off resistance zone A

V patterns usually indicate equal strength between buyers and sellers ie indecision. Hence keep the trading now in the channel until a convincing breakout either way happens to confirm the long term direction.


Chronicles of an Armature Trader: Part one - In the Beginning …






I have always been interested in the Global Financial markets ever since I was in campus thanks to watching Bloomberg on satellite T.V. But I really didn’t have an idea of how people traded I always thought, well, you buy the Shares of a good company and later sell them when they appreciate say after 2years or 5years. I began learning about trading/market speculation in early 2016. A friend invited me to a seminar held by one of the popular trading gurus out there who claimed that he was a successful currency trader and a ‘Wealth Coach’  

His speech was quite alluring to those who the get rich quick motivational speakers charm easily. I am a sceptic, got it from my Dad, and sometimes a severe pessimist. Besides I have read a couple of Autobiographies about folks the World considers as wealthy and none of them talk about joining a program conducted by a ‘wealth coach’. Anyway, He talked about Trading currencies and the WONDERFUL thing about it is that you can make profits if a currency appreciates or depreciates and this is what caught my attention since common knowledge dictates that u can’t benefit from something that depreciates, it is simply impossible.  

 At the end of the seminar, on the count of three he promised that the first 50 people to sign up with his organization will be mentored and get to ride on the get rich quick train. He had placed assistants at the back of the Hall, pen and paper in hand ready to take down names. 3,2,1…. the rush to the back of the hall was unbelievable my good friend and a chunk of the audience was already intoxicated by his talk (I could notice this during his presentation especially when the speaker commanded the entire audience to repeatedly say out loud those success adages with vigour like a warrior repeating a War chant-those of us who didn’t participate in the charade, were assumed to ‘not be ready’ for success). My good friend almost knocked me off my chair and mind you, my friend is quite tiny compared to me.

Buuut…after scrambling up to where the ticket man who would give them a ‘free ticket to board the get rich quick train, the speaker told them that they would first have to part with a deposit of $2,500! Which was part of an $8000 fee for the entire mentorship program. Faces sunk, some laughed embarrassingly at their actions, and some scratched their heads. Most of these guys are jobless college graduates, are you asking them to pay for College again? I wondered. Astonishingly enough, the fella did not even talk about how the Global Financial Markets Work! he just went straight ahead to how he can show you his ‘secrets’ to effortlessly grab thousands of dollars in a span of minutes from the Markets, as long as you follow him and His Brokerage Trading Platform (of course with your widely open wallet and probably part of your savings if you were employed).

 Anyway, we went back home discussing about that evening’s event and the ridiculous amount (given the fact that we live in a Third World country that amount was ridiculous). But this did not discourage me from wanting to learn about trading given the fact that I knew one can literally learn a skill via the internet (I learned a lot about hacking Wi-Fi networks and yet I didn’t have a computer programming background). So, I decided to research about trading currencies and trading in general. I scoured the internet and found out that some of the most successful traders were college dropouts or didn’t go to college and that a large majority of them including graduates did not have a background in Finance. This encouraged my pursuit of learning how to trade besides, it would be a way of starting a business and I had always wanted to start a business, be my own Boss I just didn’t know what kind and trading FX offered an opportunity… (to be continued)

Saturday, 3 June 2017


EURAUD, MONTHLY FOLLOW UP
BUY ENTRIES
Following our previous analysis, You may check it out HERE to have a clear follow through, S held properly, buy/long entries were clear on weekly and daily chart and monthly chart. Price followed swiftly through with a break away gap. Will give more details on the entries and levels of SL later on.

Price is moving with great momentum we hoped for on the L swing on our previous chart. The price reaction off the R resistance zone will determine if the bulls will continue the lead to larger resistance zone marked Y or give another swing back down into the congestion.

 My target now as shown on the chart below is 1.55714 with trailing stop now at  1.48923 with over 600 pips booked in profit already. My trailing stop is based on the daily supports/resistances.
So as price approaches the R zone, you may exit your buy/ long trades or take off part of the position as we wait for the reaction on the zone for the next trades.


As promised, lets look at how the entries were performed,

DAILY
The nice clear bullish candle that closed above the blue trendline T was confirmation for entry. Using daily entry for a monthly trade setup, it is very important to be familiar with average swings of the price to avoid false breakouts. Stop loss set on S zone and trailed as price breaks through new resistances to lock in some profits in case price reverses before it hits the target. The target is the R zone as we had discussed here. 

 WEEKLY
The weekly chart is better confirmation than daily. Some pips would have been missed on entry since price opened with a gap but the entry was open of that weekly candle with gap as shown in the char below. Missing a few pips with gap open is safer than an early entry on a lower time frame that could turn out to be a false break out.  Stop Loss on the S zone and all else as described above.


MONTHLY
This was the ultimate confirmation for entry. If you are not familiar with price exhaustions and average swings on the chart, always wait for confirmation from the timeframe with the setup to avoid common false break outs. The candle marked with a green arrow was confirmation and entry was on open  of the next candle. SL and targets same as described above.



Comrades who want more deeper coverage on false break outs and trailing stops. You can comment BREAK OUT or TRAILING STOP depending on what you need most and will prepare to get you more.

Happy trading!!!



Tuesday, 30 May 2017


EURNZD MONTHLY CHART

ADVANCED PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

Advanced PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS involves the following as we had discussed in our previous article
  • Current status
  • Analysis of the major swings on the pair and how long they have been lasting
  • Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
  • General conclusion and current probable status

Current status
The price was in a good downtrend since the beginning of 2009 indicated by Lower highs(LH) and Lower lows(LL) until a higher high(HH) was formed in early August 2015 which was then followed by a higher low(HL) early this February 2017. This was an indication of weakness in the bears and catch up by the bulls which can all result into a large reversal to form new highs at R

Analysis of major wings
The major swings are marked with purple and green lines. They have been averagely lasting 6 months covering over 4600 pips. As compared to previous downswings the average down swing is completed and next likely move is another major upward swing(purple arrow). Will give more reasons in the next chapters below. Like i mentioned in previous articlesAnalysis of major swings helps you not to get out of trend too early or too late.

Analysis of Corrective moves
I have marked the corrective moves with a red ellipse. Most 2 waves lasting 9 months. Observing how long these congestion zones helps not to enter the major swing trades too early or too late and the timeframes to trade on during different market phases

General conclusion and probable status
Comparing the current status discussed above with what happened in the start of 2008 where i have marked with a SOLID GREEN arrow in the chart, that's the kind of action that is likely to happen. In both scenarios,We can see a shift in strength and sentiment from sellers to buyers indicated by the HH then followed by a HL

So now we will wait for confirmation of bullish candle above trendline T quite like the March 2008 candle on the chart that confirmed movement to new highs.
Monthly candle close above trendline T may lead price into resistance zone marked R around 1.88816

Tuesday, 23 May 2017



AUDJPY, DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


The price gave us a great swing and nice intraday trades as per OUR PREVIOUS ANALYSIS . The price is now ranging between support zone marked S2 and resistance zone marked S1. Close below preferably weekly candle close below S2 may lead price into the next support zone marked T around 79.427. Close above S1 can lead price to retest previous R1 and R2 resistance on the previous CHART. Following, the MONTHLY timeframe price analysis , the downside is still stronger but wait for confirmations.


Sunday, 21 May 2017



AUDCAD, DAILY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now being held by trendline support T and congesting around the 21 Simple Moving Average. Close below trendline T, preferably weekly candle close below trendline may lead price into support zone S around 0.98000. Close above resistance R disqualifies the setup