EURAUD, MONTHLY FOLLOW UP

BUY ENTRIES

Following our previous analysis, You may check it out HERE to have a clear follow through, S held properly, buy/long entries were clear on weekly and daily chart and monthly chart. Price followed swiftly through with a break away gap. Will give more details on the entries and levels of SL later on.

Price is moving with great momentum we hoped for on the L swing on our previous chart. The price reaction off the R resistance zone will determine if the bulls will continue the lead to larger resistance zone marked Y or give another swing back down into the congestion.

 My target now as shown on the chart below is 1.55714 with trailing stop now at  1.48923 with over 600 pips booked in profit already. My trailing stop is based on the daily supports/resistances.

So as price approaches the R zone, you may exit your buy/ long trades or take off part of the position as we wait for the reaction on the zone for the next trades.

As promised, lets look at how the entries were performed,

DAILY

The nice clear bullish candle that closed above the blue trendline T was confirmation for entry. Using daily entry for a monthly trade setup, it is very important to be familiar with average swings of the price to avoid false breakouts. Stop loss set on S zone and trailed as price breaks through new resistances to lock in some profits in case price reverses before it hits the target. The target is the R zone as we had discussed here. 

 WEEKLY

The weekly chart is better confirmation than daily. Some pips would have been missed on entry since price opened with a gap but the entry was open of that weekly candle with gap as shown in the char below. Missing a few pips with gap open is safer than an early entry on a lower time frame that could turn out to be a false break out.  Stop Loss on the S zone and all else as described above.

MONTHLY

This was the ultimate confirmation for entry. If you are not familiar with price exhaustions and average swings on the chart, always wait for confirmation from the timeframe with the setup to avoid common false break outs. The candle marked with a green arrow was confirmation and entry was on open  of the next candle. SL and targets same as described above.

Comrades who want more deeper coverage on false break outs and trailing stops. You can comment BREAK OUT or TRAILING STOP depending on what you need most and will prepare to get you more.

Happy trading!!!

EURNZD MONTHLY CHART

ADVANCED PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

Advanced PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS involves the following as we had discussed in our previous article

• Current status
• Analysis of the major swings on the pair and how long they have been lasting
• Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
• General conclusion and current probable status

Current status

The price was in a good downtrend since the beginning of 2009 indicated by Lower highs(LH) and Lower lows(LL) until a higher high(HH) was formed in early August 2015 which was then followed by a higher low(HL) early this February 2017. This was an indication of weakness in the bears and catch up by the bulls which can all result into a large reversal to form new highs at R

Analysis of major wings

The major swings are marked with purple and green lines. They have been averagely lasting 6 months covering over 4600 pips. As compared to previous downswings the average down swing is completed and next likely move is another major upward swing(purple arrow). Will give more reasons in the next chapters below. Like i mentioned in previous articles, Analysis of major swings helps you not to get out of trend too early or too late.

Analysis of Corrective moves

I have marked the corrective moves with a red ellipse. Most 2 waves lasting 9 months. Observing how long these congestion zones helps not to enter the major swing trades too early or too late and the timeframes to trade on during different market phases

General conclusion and probable status

Comparing the current status discussed above with what happened in the start of 2008 where i have marked with a SOLID GREEN arrow in the chart, that's the kind of action that is likely to happen. In both scenarios,We can see a shift in strength and sentiment from sellers to buyers indicated by the HH then followed by a HL

So now we will wait for confirmation of bullish candle above trendline T quite like the March 2008 candle on the chart that confirmed movement to new highs.

Monthly candle close above trendline T may lead price into resistance zone marked R around 1.88816

AUDJPY, DAILY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price gave us a great swing and nice intraday trades as per OUR PREVIOUS ANALYSIS . The price is now ranging between support zone marked S2 and resistance zone marked S1. Close below preferably weekly candle close below S2 may lead price into the next support zone marked T around 79.427. Close above S1 can lead price to retest previous R1 and R2 resistance on the previous CHART. Following, the MONTHLY timeframe price analysis , the downside is still stronger but wait for confirmations.

AUDCAD, DAILY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now being held by trendline support T and congesting around the 21 Simple Moving Average. Close below trendline T, preferably weekly candle close below trendline may lead price into support zone S around 0.98000. Close above resistance R disqualifies the setup

EURUSD DAILY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The average price swing was completed with a gap. The price is now into weekly and daily resistance marked R. Intraday 4 hour candle close below small trendline T(Fig,2) can lean price into X support zone. A daily candle close below X may lead price back into trendline support labelled S. Close preferably a weekly candle close below S can lead price back into the lows  support zone labelled M.

Meanwhile, if the momentum stays strong, a weekly candle close above R can lead price into the next resistance zone marked K.

Fig 1; EURUSD  Daily

Fig 2; EURUSD, 4-Hour

AUDJPY DAILY CHARTTECHNICAL ANALYSIS

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

The price reacted neatly off monthly resistance zone as we had discussed in the previous article. On the daily chart below, the labelled zones (R1,R2, S1, and S2) are the major daily resistance and support zones.

Price is now into significant daily support zone S1 marked by the blue arrows with significant downward pressure. Close below S1 preferably weekly candle close below the zone may lead price into the next major daily support zone S2 around 81.522. R1 is likely to halt the price once if it again bounces off strongly off S1.

AUDJPY, HOURLY

INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ZONES

The labelled zones on the chart below are the intraday support and resistance zones. Intraday Sell setups on the zones r1, r2 and R1 are high probability short setups.

NZDUSD WEEKLY CHART

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The weekly price is back into a major trendline support zone formed since July 2015. This is a third touch of the trendline and can also easily lead to break of the trendline.  Preferably for the break down, price stays along the trendline T without a weekly candle closing above resistance marked R.

A weekly candle close below trendline T can lead price into support zone marked A around 0.65862. If the momentum is strong enough, the price can go as deep as support zone B after reaction on A support zone.