AUDJPY DAILY CHARTTECHNICAL ANALYSIS

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

The price reacted neatly off monthly resistance zone as we had discussed in the previous article. On the daily chart below, the labelled zones (R1,R2, S1, and S2) are the major daily resistance and support zones.

Price is now into significant daily support zone S1 marked by the blue arrows with significant downward pressure. Close below S1 preferably weekly candle close below the zone may lead price into the next major daily support zone S2 around 81.522. R1 is likely to halt the price once if it again bounces off strongly off S1.

AUDJPY, HOURLY

INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ZONES

The labelled zones on the chart below are the intraday support and resistance zones. Intraday Sell setups on the zones r1, r2 and R1 are high probability short setups.

NZDUSD WEEKLY CHART

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The weekly price is back into a major trendline support zone formed since July 2015. This is a third touch of the trendline and can also easily lead to break of the trendline.  Preferably for the break down, price stays along the trendline T without a weekly candle closing above resistance marked R.

A weekly candle close below trendline T can lead price into support zone marked A around 0.65862. If the momentum is strong enough, the price can go as deep as support zone B after reaction on A support zone.

NZDCAD 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY

The price is in a large strong resistance zone on the monthly chart. The price is showing a typical congestion phase movement with 2 waves up and down in the highlighted congestion zone. It is now on upper part of the congestion zone already reacting to it showing rejections of high prices indicated by that pin bar/shooting star.

The likely next movement is another 2 wave down until we see a change in momentum when either the bulls or bears take over for a larger long term movement. A close below that blue trendline marked T can lead price into the centre of the congestion around 0.90000 support zone marked by red horizontal line S

DAILY

All the support and resistance lines and trendline are same as those on the monthly chart above.

The price is on the daily chart is now held by a trendline support marked X. Close below X can lead price into the bigger support trendline marked T. Close below T preferably a monthly candle close can lead price into S support zone.

AUDUSD,H4SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now into a large weekly resistance zone marked by trendline X and the highlighted previous congestion as shown below although there is no significant reversal signal just yet, although there are signs of indecision displayed by the dojis as it reacts into the zone.

The 4-hour chart below shows indepth movement reactions to the zone. The price now is reacting to support zone marked by red trendline T. Close below T can lead price into trendline support zone marked C. Close below C can lead price into a larger support zone marked S.

Preferably for the setup to work as analysed above, price should not go beyond resistance zone marked R. Although there is still a possibility of price going higher since the larger weekly timeframe has not shown any significant reversal movements.

USDCHF, WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Monthly chart analysis can be found in this previous article.

The price is back into strong pivotal zone, a resistance zone that was broken in early November 2016. This zone is now a great support price zone.

Previous movements as highlighted show a strong retest of the zone that later confirmed the upside movement with a large bullish candle.

Currently the price is already into the support zone but there is no confirmation of the upside just yet to take back price into resistance marked R. The price can even go deeper just like in the previous retest.

But we can see already reaction to the support zone forexample, the gap open directly into the zone although there is no confirmation of the bounce up yet.

With the upcoming major fundamentals on the USD, Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) and Fed Interest rate decision may take price deeper down into the support zone or give a strong bounce up off the support zone.

NZDUSD,H4

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The price is now is reacting to a daily resistance zone. The price on 4- hourly time frame is now being held by 21 Simple Moving Average and red trendline support. Close below the red trendline marked T may lead price into 0.71866 support zone marked S. Close above R disqualifies the setup.

EURUSD MONTHLY CHART PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

ADVANCED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD, MONTHLY

PURE PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

The price is now at major support on monthly and weekly time frame as we had discussed in the previous article. This gives sharp bounces on the lower time times i.e daily and 4 hour. 

Now lets get into the depth of the price action on the monthly chart and this includes;

• Analysis of the major swing moves and how long they have been lasting
• Analysis of the corrective moves and how long they have been lasting
• The current probable status
• General conclusion on the pair 

Analysis of the major swing moves and how long they have been lasting

The major swing moves are indicated by the green arrows have been averagely lasting for about a year and moving over 3000 pips. As i had mentioned in the previous article, understanding of the price action of these major swings enables you not to get out of the trades too early or too late. It also enables you not to make entries into an ended/exhausted swing since you now know how long they averagely last

Analysis of corrective moves 

The corrective moves have been lasting averagely 2 years, atleast twice the period of major swings. I have marked the corrective moves with ellipses. Observing how long these congestion zones last helps you not to enter the major swing trades too early or too late and the timeframes to trade on during different market phases

The current probable status

The price is now reacting to a strong monthly support marked S around 1.04674. This is the same zone that halted the major down ward momentum in the beginning of 2015 (pink arrow), and also held price in the beginning of 2016 (blue arrow) and is now holding price in the beginning of 2017 (black arrow). This makes this zone a large decisive zone for the next 12 months price movement.

The general trend is down and there is a remarkable bearish strength as price hit the zone this time around closing with a doji as compared to the engulfing pattern in 2015 and piercing pattern in 2016 <see the arrows>

The congestion period seems to be done as it has lasted averagely as the previous congestions so we are waiting for the reaction off this major S support zone, if it will give off a strong bouce up or continuation of down trend. Confirmation of continuation of the down trend will be marked by a close below the S zone. This may land price into the 0.91416 zone

General conclusion

Understanding pure price action helps you to know what phase the price is in apparently. Congestion on the larger times like this monthly chart give great swings on the weekly and daily charts just like how we have been trading this pair since 2015. Price is now at a major decisive zone for the next yearly action.