GOLD (XAU/USD)

WEEKLY PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

The price is being held in channel marked by the yellow trend lines M and N as shown in our chart below. Price is approaching the immediate strong support zone around 1296.81 marked by the red horizontal line H. You can also see the moving average flattening.

A close below H may lead price to retest the lower channel trend line support N. Depending on the momentum and price action then, candle close below N may lead price to retest the previous lows around 1142.16 support zone marked S.

On the other hand, a strong bounce off H may lead price to retest the previous highs in the M trend line resistance zone around 1358.62. Close above M may see price aim for higher highs around 1458.71

For now, keeping the trading within the channel marked by the yellow trend lines as we await larger time frame confirmation.

EURGBP, DAILY PRICE ACTION

MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

The price reacted so fast with rapid selling after hitting resitance R zone. Currently price is in a channel congestion marked by the red trendlines A and B.  This means we keep trading within the channel until we see a convincing break of the channel..

A break and close of weekly candle above A, may lead price to retest the previous resistance zone R around 0.92293.  Break close of weekly candle price below trendline B, may lead price to the previous strong support zone marked S around 0.84737.

The immediate reaction off the resistance zone, implies a strong bearish bias. This bias will be maintained if price in the channel keeps below the 21 Simple Moving Average in the chart above. 

But since anything can happen in the markets, keep the trading within in the channel and wait for price confirmation on the channel break either way.

Lets look at the channel clearly on the daily time frame:

DAILY CHART

 On the daily chart, we can clearly see the price action in the channel. The red trendlines A and B are same as those on the weekly chart.

So what we are seeing n the daily chart is price in a small channel too marked by blue trendlines a and b.

A break and close of daily candle above blue trendline a, may lead price to retest the immediate resistance marked by purple trendline T. Strong close above T can lead price high above into the ultimate weekly trendline resistance A.

Meanwhile, a close of daily candle below blue trendline b, may lead price to retest the immediate support zone marked by purple trendline H. The H zone is the same as the 21 Simple moving  average zone, this makes it quite a strong support zone. 

A strong close below H can lead price  into the strong weekly support zone marked by red trendline B.

Daily chart congestion indicates keeping lower timeframe trading on 4-hourly or hourly in the small daily channel marked by blue trendlines a and b, until we get a daily candle close above/below the channel.

WILL THE CANADIAN DOLLAR  WEAKEN AS WE HEAD TOWARDS 2018? 

More Oil & Gas companies are listed on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX Venture Exchange than any other exchange in the world. Therefore to Track the long-term performance of the Canadian Dollar which is largely driven by Global Energy prices , I closely follow the price Action of these Companies using the S&P Toronto Stock Exchange(TSX) Equal Weight Oil and Gas Index which has an over 95% inverse correlation with the USDCAD . 

As the INDEX  formed a 12wk Head and Shoulder Top, the USDCAD curved out a Bottom Head and Shoulder and successfully broke out of it. Currently the USDCAD has formed a possible continuation Bullish Rectangle Chart pattern and price might continue to Surge if Oil and Gas stocks respect the 3yr primary down-trend by Resolving  the  12wk Head and Shoulder Top.  

EURUSD, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MAJOR DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ZONES

The Fiber price has been moving in a bearish channel for the past 2.5 months after hitting a major monthly resistance R around 1.20900. The channel is marked by the red trendlines.

Last week, We had a large bullish break out out of the channel resistance. Large candle breakouts are usually indicate exhaustion  and that's why a retest of the trendline happening now was highly possible before any continuation to the upside. 

Currently, price is back to trendline support zone. Daily candle close below trendline may lead price back into t support zone which also happens to be the 21 Simple Moving Average zone. 

If we get a great price action bullish pattern on the trendline zone , the first immediate resistance will be r before we can any further upside movement.

Daily candle close above r may give price momentum back to the major monthly resistance R. Candle close below t may lead price back into major support zone S. For now, keeping trading on the lower timeframes within r and t zone.

Comments below; What do you think of these zones (r,t,R and S)?

USDJPY-Long term. A multi-year H&S and a Symmetrical Triangle at the Right Shoulder. Keeping an eye on those critical Resistance zones  

SILVER (Ag)

 WEEKLY PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

In one of previous articles, we discussed why the crypto boom is likely to bring back investors to the centuries safe havens i;e Silver and Gold. We also talked about why silver is likely to be a better investment than Gold. If you missed the article, you can get it here

So now lets look more into the price action on the silver weekly chart.

WEEKLY CHART

Price on the weekly chart is into congestion triangle showed by red trendlines A and B. The large monthly chart is into a large support which explains the large congestions on the weekly chart.

Silver price is coming towards end of triangle without breakout, so may see immediate levels of support X around 15.600 and resistance Y around 19.000 , hold before momentum can build to hit the ultimate levels S and R respectively.

For now keep the trading within the triangle congestion.

Weekly candle close above A may lead price into Immediate resistance Y and depending on the reaction on the Y zone we may see price push to large resistance marked  R around the 20.000 zone.

Weekly candle close below B may lead price into immediate support X and depending on the X zone reaction, price could retest lows at 14.600 zone  marked S

The large monthly chart already shows some bullish bias, so preferably price has to stay above support trendline B to maintain the bullish bias. If the upward bias is maintained and we get prices hitting resistance R, a monthly candle close above the zone R may give a long term monthly swing on the upside.

We still in congestion now, so we will wait for price action on the major marked support and resistance levels.

GOLD, PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

The price is back into congestion zone after a false break out at close of weekly candle(blue marking) on 1st Sept. Currently what we see is price into support zone but no major reaction for bounce up. Price is into the 21 Simple moving Average (SMA) zone, great horizontal support around 1266 zone marked with a blue line

The momentum on the downside is still quite strong, so it can make some lower lows aiming for the previous red trendline support marked T

If in short trade, you could take out some of your profits as we wait for reaction in this large support zone (21 SMA, horizontal and trendline support).

SO WHATS NEXT?

Depending on the price reaction on the current support zone, there are two major zones that could determine larger movement up or down. These levels are support trendline T and horizontal resistance zone marked with red line R.

Close below T could lead price to retest previous lows of the congestion around 1212.885 support zone marked S. Preferably if there is a small congestion on the current support zone to give momentum for price to fall through to S. But if current price just falls through beyond T with no pause, it will have a hard time falling into S, we may see immediate support zones in this case hold.

Close above resistance R ,could give  a true breakout that could push prices up. Previous highs would of course be the immediate resistance zone around 1345 marked Z